Trends in case-fatality rates of covid-19 in the world between december, 2019 and august, 2020.

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2020

Keywords

COVID-19; Trends; Case-Fatality; Epidemiology

Disciplines

Epidemiology | International Public Health

Abstract

Introduction: CoV infections can potentially cause from a simple cold to a severe respiratory syndrome, such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV). The COVID-19 created a new reality for global healthcare delivery models. Objective: To evaluate trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the world. Methods: We conducted a population-based time-series study using public and official data of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States and Russia, between December, 2019 and August, 2020. Data were based on reports from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. COVID-19 was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (U07.1). A Prais-Winsten regression model was performed and the Daily Percentage Change (DPC) determined rates as increasing, decreasing or flat. Results: During the study period, trends in case-fatality rates in the world were flat (DPC = 0.3; CI 95% [-0.2: 0.7]; p = 0.225). In Africa, Morocco had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.1; CI 95% [-1.5: -0.7]; p 0.05) and flat trends in Nigeria (p > 0.05). In the Americas, Argentina showed a decreasing trend in case-fatality rates (DPC = -0.6; CI 95% [-1.1: -0.2]; p = 0.005), the U.S. had flat trends (p > 0.05) and all other countries in the Americas had increasing trends (p Asia, Iran had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.5; CI 95% [-2.6 : -0.2]; p = 0.019); China and Saudi Arabia showed increasing trends (p 0.05). European countries had mostly increasing trends (p Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Russia; France and Switzerland had flat trends (p > 0.05). Finally, in Oceania, trends in case-fatality rates were flat in Australia (p > 0.05) and increasing in New Zealand (p Conclusion: World trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 were flat between December 31, 2019 and August 31, 2020. Argentina, Iran and Morocco were the only countries with decreasing trends. On the other hand, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, China, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, Russia and New Zealand had increasing trends in case-fatality rates. All the other countries analyzed had flat trends. Based on case fatality rate data, our study supports that COVID-19 pandemic is still in progress worldwide.

Comments

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