Author ORCID Identifier
0009-0004-9641-305X
Abstract
The 2030s will be decisive for adapting agriculture to hotter, drier, and more volatile climates, especially across arid and semi-arid regions from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to parts of the United States. We advance a pragmatic blueprint: pair water-smart infrastructure and nature-based systems with digital, genetic, and robotic innovations, and align them through policy that de-risks investment while protecting people and ecosystems. We position Australia as a global test bed, where enforceable basin rules, digital agronomy, targeted inputs/robotics, safe wastewater reuse, managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and emerging agrivoltaics (AV) have been validated as bundles rather than isolated projects. We then translate and scale those lessons through two caselets—New England (a region where multi-hazard portfolios link water, energy, and data) and MENA with an Iraq lens (where we propose a portfolio logic to address salinity and chronic scarcity). We crosswalk the portfolio to Iraq’s COP30 negotiating priorities by mapping measures to the global goal on adaptation (GGA) with nationally tailored, low-burden indicators and by clarifying the means of implementation (finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building). We also identify grant-forward entry points under the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) and loss-and-damage financing channels, including—but not limited to—the Loss and Damage Fund. We provide negotiation-ready indicators—e.g., 20–30 percent gains in water productivity in irrigated districts, >60 percent advisory coverage, and >25 percent index insurance penetration—and decision triggers to activate them across heat, multi-year drought, salinity escalation, flash floods, wind/dust, and shifting pests. By 2030, countries that treat water as a scarce asset, build digital public infrastructure for farm services, and mainstream dual-use land/energy models can plausibly raise water productivity 20–30 percent, cut chemical inputs per ton by 30–50 percent in target crops, expand anticipatory risk finance, and translate domestic progress into concrete COP text asks and delivery pathways.
Recommended Citation
David M. Kargbo, Rawya Mezaal Mhmood, and Neam Nabeel Alqaseer
(2025)
"Farming the 2030s: A Policy Playbook for Climate‑Resilient, Tech‑Enabled Agriculture in Arid and Semi‑Arid Regions,"
New England Journal of Public Policy: Vol. 37:
Iss.
2, Article 8.
Available at:
https://scholarworks.umb.edu/nejpp/vol37/iss2/8