Abstract
This article presents an innovative framework for analyzing and resolving intractable conflicts through the lens of complexity analytics. By conceptualizing conflicts as complex adaptive systems with fractal properties, we introduce a multifaceted methodology that integrates game theory, network analysis, cognitive science, and artificial intelligence (AI) to comprehend and influence conflict dynamics across multiple scales. The approach emphasizes ‘playing the players’ rather than focusing solely on the immediate conflict situation, drawing insights from poker strategy and AI-driven decision-making processes. This strategy involves understanding the psychological profiles, risk attitudes, and decision-making patterns of key actors, allowing for more nuanced and effective interventions. We demonstrate how mapping rationality spectrums, from extreme conditions to calculated trade-offs, can inform negotiation strategies. The framework incorporates market-based risk attitude quantification and memetic techniques to analyze information propagation and cultural influences in conflict zones. By treating conflicts as fractals, the methodology allows for the analysis of self-similar patterns across different scales, from local disputes to international conflicts. This approach enables policymakers and negotiators to identify critical intervention points and develop strategies that address the conflict’s underlying structure. The framework provides practical tools for conflict resolution practitioners, including network topology analysis, Bayesian updating of conflict assessments, and AI-driven scenario modeling. These tools are designed to enhance decision-making in complex, high-stakes environments where traditional approaches often fall short. To validate the framework, we present a detailed case study of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, demonstrating how complexity analytics can be applied to real-world conflict resolution processes. This case study illustrates the framework’s potential for achieving sustainable peace in seemingly intractable conflict situations.
Recommended Citation
Bilal M. Ayyub
(2025)
"Play the Players for Winning Peace: Complexity Analytics with the UK-Ireland Good Friday Agreement as a Case Study,"
New England Journal of Public Policy: Vol. 37:
Iss.
1, Article 7.
Available at:
https://scholarworks.umb.edu/nejpp/vol37/iss1/7