Abstract
In political science and international relations, as in foreign policy and military circles, a debate is ongoing between “realists” and “moralists” regarding the importance of material factors (territory, economy, security, etc.) versus value-laden factors (justice, ideals, identity, etc.) in motivating, sustaining, and ending wars. An early 2025 representative survey of Gaza’s population considers both sets of factors in how Gazans perceive the present and future states of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Comparisons with our previous studies in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe aim to extend this survey’s relevance beyond the current Israel-Palestine theater. The survey suggests that after waging many months of ‘total war,’ Israel may be further from pacifying Gaza than ever before. The war has hardened Gazans’ maximalist political goals for elimination of Israel, while offering virtually no backing for a binational democratic state “from the river to the sea” as advocated by Western pro-Palestinian activists. Although Hamas’s popular support has declined significantly, political alternatives draw even less support, allowing Hamas to maintain outsize influence over Gaza. Perhaps most important for the long term, Gazans retain strong core values related to national and religious identity and attachment to the land, values they indicate their intention to uphold even at great personal sacrifice. However, the survey also reveals what movement toward peace might involve, such as humanizing an enemy as a predictor of willingness to sacrifice for peace in wartime. A final overview of historical developments within and between Hamas and Israel’s Likud highlights their roles as peace spoilers.
Recommended Citation
Scott Atran, Laura Rodriguez-Gómez, Kamil Yilmaz, and Ángel Gómez
(2025)
"How Gaza Sees the 2023-2025 War and the Future of the Israel-Palestine Conflict,"
New England Journal of Public Policy: Vol. 37:
Iss.
1, Article 11.
Available at:
https://scholarworks.umb.edu/nejpp/vol37/iss1/11